Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 16 Aug, 02:30 UTC

LAFC vs San Diego FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
LAFCstepSan Diego FC
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

LAFC average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). San Diego average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Under 3.5 goals
81%
LAFC or Draw
68%
LAFC Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

LAFC fixtures & form →San Diego FC fixtures & form →

LAFC vs San Diego — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 3 May 2026, LAFC have won 0, San Diego have won 0, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
3 May 2026San Diego 2–2 LAFCUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: LAFC 40% · draw 28% · San Diego 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

LAFC predictions & form →San Diego predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.