FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–0 LAFCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 32%, draw at 27%, LAFC at 41%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was LAFC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rapids win
32%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
LAFC win
41%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.51
Total 2.82
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost