FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
San Diego FC 3–0 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had San Diego FC at 49%, draw at 24%, Colorado Rapids at 27%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward San Diego FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Rapids win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.89 – 1.35
Total 3.24
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost