FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
San Diego FC 3–0 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was San Diego FC or draw at 73%. Bawler had San Diego FC at 49%, the draw at 24% and Colorado Rapids at 27%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Diego FC win
49%
Result
Draw
24%
Colorado Rapids win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
San Diego FC or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.