FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
LAFC 1–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had LAFC at 60%, draw at 22%, Portland Timbers at 18%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was LAFC to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
LAFC win
60%
Draw
22%
Actual ✓
Timbers win
18%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 1.01
Total 3.05
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 60%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost