FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
LAFC 1–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was LAFC to win at 60%. Bawler had LAFC at 60%, the draw at 22% and Portland Timbers at 18%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
LAFC win
60%
Draw
22%
Result
Portland Timbers win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.0
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
LAFC to win
Pre-match: 60%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.