FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Portland Timbers 3–1 San Diego FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Portland Timbers or draw at 65%. Bawler had Portland Timbers at 40%, the draw at 25% and San Diego FC at 35%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portland Timbers win
40%
Result
Draw
25%
San Diego FC win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.