FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Portland Timbers 3–1 San Diego FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Portland Timbers at 40%, draw at 25%, San Diego FC at 35%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Portland Timbers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Timbers win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
FC win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.58 – 1.47
Total 3.05
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost