FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
LA Galaxy 1–3 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had LA Galaxy at 42%, draw at 31%, St. Louis CITY SC at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was LA Galaxy to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Galaxy win
42%
Draw
31%
SC win
27%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.20
Total 2.75
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 21%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Galaxy's 1.55 xG and a 0.35 shot-creation advantage—anchored by creator Riqui Puig—overwhelm St. Louis's 1.20 defensive output."