> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Thursday 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Japan vs Sweden
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 73% probability because Japan's 1.69 xG and Sweden's 1.14 xG combine for a goal-heavy 2.83 expected total, with Japan's attacking depth around Minamino giving hosts the edge at home.
Win probability
47.1% home29.6% draw23.2% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
JapanstepSweden
1.69Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.14
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.69Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.14
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
1X + Over 2.5 Goals + Over 8.5 Corners + Viktor GyΓΆkeres 5+ Shots
Model 24.1% Β· @ 4.15x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Japan 1β1 Sweden
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+