Japan vs Sweden
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 73% probability because Japan's 1.69 xG and Sweden's 1.14 xG combine for a goal-heavy 2.83 expected total, with Japan's attacking depth around Minamino giving hosts the edge at home.
Japan average 3.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Sweden average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (3 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Japan vs Sweden — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Japan and Sweden — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Japan 47% · draw 30% · Sweden 23%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.