Bawler / Ivory Coast vs Norway / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Tuesday, 30 June 2026

Ivory Coast 1–2 NorwayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 30 June 2026

Ivory Coast
1–2
Norway win
Norway
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Ivory Coast at 30%, draw at 32%, Norway at 38%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Norway.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Coast win
30%
Draw
32%
Norway win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.43
Total 2.67
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Value
X2
Pre-match: 59%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.91x
  • Over 1.5 Goals✓
  • X2✓
  • Under 8.5 SOT✗
  • Over 8.5 Corners✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals projects at 68% because Ivory Coast's 1.25 xG and Norway's 1.43 xG combine to favour a multi-goal affair, with Haller and Haaland driving penetration on either flank."

> More from Bawler