Bawler / Ivory Coast vs Norway / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Tuesday, 30 June 2026

Ivory Coast 1–2 NorwayMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 30 June 2026

Ivory Coast
1–2
Norway win
Norway
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Ivory Coast at 30%, draw at 32%, Norway at 38%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Norway.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Coast win
30%
Draw
32%
Norway win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.43
Total 2.67
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 59%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals projects at 68% because Ivory Coast's 1.25 xG and Norway's 1.43 xG combine to favour a multi-goal affair, with Haller and Haaland driving penetration on either flank."

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