Iran vs New Zealand
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 73% probability because Iran's 0.79 xG advantage and 1.76 expected goals output creates a high-volume attacking blueprint that New Zealand's 0.97 xG cannot match defensively.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Iran vs New Zealand — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Iran and New Zealand — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Iran 53% · draw 29% · New Zealand 18%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.