FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Inter Miami CF 3–2 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 44%, draw at 27%, Chicago Fire FC at 29%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Inter Miami CF.
> Pre-match probability vs result
CF win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
FC win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 1.53
Total 3.45
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 83%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 30%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 83% because Inter Miami's 1.91 xG and Messi's creative dominance (35% of team output) edge Chicago's 1.53 in a matchup tilted toward open play."