Team stats
What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet. Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.
Match odds
How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.
Our numbers, most likely first
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
In plain English
Excelsior are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost four of their last six, and MVV Maastricht have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Excelsior or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model rates this match: Excelsior are favoured (44% win probability vs 29% for MVV Maastricht, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is MVV Maastricht 1-1 Excelsior (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives MVV Maastricht 29%, the draw 27% and Excelsior 44%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on MVV Maastricht expecting 1.20 goals and Excelsior 1.53.
Over or under 2.5 goals in MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 51%.