What we expect
In plain English
Excelsior are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. FC Groningen have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Excelsior or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Bawler's model rates this match: Excelsior are favoured (40% win probability vs 35% for FC Groningen, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Excelsior 1-1 FC Groningen (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.17.
How does Bawler predict Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Excelsior 40%, the draw 25% and FC Groningen 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.64 and away expected goals 1.53.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.17. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).