Excelsior vs FC Groningen prediction — Eredivisie · Sun 11 Oct · 15:45 UK

Eredivisie · Sun 11 Oct · 15:45 UK
40Excelsior win25Draw35FC Groningen win
Full time
1–5

How it finished

FC Groningen beat Excelsior 5–1. Excelsior had 16 shots (2 on target) to FC Groningen's 14 (9), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 2.8.

ExcelsiorFull-time statsFC Groningen
49%Possession51%
1.8Expected goals (xG)2.8
16Shots14
2Shots on target9
11Shots inside box13
1Big chances6
3Corners6
5Saves1
10Fouls12
1Offsides0
0Yellow cards2
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Excelsior win (8%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (11%)
Expected goals
1.6v1.5
3.2 in total
Both teams score
63%
Yes
3+ goals
61%
Likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

ExcelsiorExcelsiorFC GroningenFC Groningen
1.6Goals1.5
18.6Shots15.3
6.7On target5.8
5.4Corners4.4
ExcelsiorExcelsiorFC GroningenFC Groningen
0.7Goals0.7
8.3Shots7.1
3.1On target2.7
2.5Corners2.1
ExcelsiorExcelsiorFC GroningenFC Groningen
0.9Goals0.8
10.2Shots8.2
3.7On target3.1
2.9Corners2.3

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals82%
Excelsior to score80%
FC Groningen to score78%
Goal before half-time77%

First half — what we expected

Excelsior
53%
to score before half-time
FC Groningen
51%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

ExcelsiorExcelsiorFC GroningenFC Groningen
67%7+ shots53%
44%9+ shots31%
77%2+ shots on target71%
37%4+ shots on target29%
67%2+ corners57%
26%4+ corners18%

League position

FC Groningen in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

May 2026FC Groningen 2–3 Excelsior
Dec 2025Excelsior 0–2 FC Groningen
Jan 2024Excelsior 0–2 FC Groningen
Feb 2023FC Groningen 3–0 Excelsior
Jan 2023Excelsior 1–0 FC Groningen
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
All fixtures & results →Excelsior form →FC Groningen form →

Common questions

Who won Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

FC Groningen beat Excelsior 5–1. Excelsior had 16 shots (2 on target) to FC Groningen's 14 (9), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 1.8 to 2.8.

What was the final score in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

Excelsior 1–5 FC Groningen, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with Excelsior 40%, the draw 25% and FC Groningen 35%.

What were the stats in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 1.8–2.8, Shots 16–14, Shots on target 2–9, Shots inside box 11–13, Big chances 1–6, Corners 3–6, Saves 5–1, Fouls 10–12, Offsides 1–0, Yellow cards 0–2.

Did both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Groningen?

Yes — both Excelsior and FC Groningen scored, finishing 1–5. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.