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Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen prediction — KNVB Beker · Wed 28 Oct · 20:00 UK

KNVB Beker · Wed 28 Oct · 20:00 UK
Excelsior Maassluis 24Draw 25Heerenveen 52
The call
76%
Heerenveen or draw
Calls on the result published at 75–80% have landed 75% of the time
199 of 267 settledFull record →
2.9
Goals expected
03:00Until lineups lock
01

Team stats

What we expect from each side, next to how they have been doing lately.

Excelsior MaassluisHeerenveen
IN SHORTHeerenveen are forecast to come out ahead on every measure here, with about twice as many shots as Excelsior Maassluis (16.3 v 8.8).
GoalsHeerenveen +0.6
1.1
No recent record
1.8
No recent record
ShotsHeerenveen +7.5
8.8
No recent record
16.3
No recent record
On targetHeerenveen +2.4
4.0
No recent record
6.4
No recent record
CornersHeerenveen +1.2
3.6
No recent record
4.8
No recent record
GoalsHeerenveen +0.1
0.4
No recent record
0.5
No recent record
ShotsHeerenveen +3.3
4.0
No recent record
7.3
No recent record
On targetHeerenveen +1.1
1.8
No recent record
2.9
No recent record
CornersHeerenveen +0.5
1.7
No recent record
2.3
No recent record
GoalsHeerenveen +0.5
0.7
No recent record
1.3
No recent record
ShotsHeerenveen +4.2
4.8
No recent record
9.0
No recent record
On targetHeerenveen +1.3
2.2
No recent record
3.5
No recent record
CornersHeerenveen +0.6
1.9
No recent record
2.5
No recent record

Each card is drawn on one scale, so the two bars are directly comparable. “Above recent” means our forecast is higher than their average over the last six.

02

Match odds

How likely the big moments are, and what they add up to.

71%
Goal before half-time
At least one goal in the first 45 minutes.
57%
Both teams score
Each side finds the net at least once.
56%
3 or more goals
Three or more goals in the match, from either side.
Key takeaways
FAVOURITES
Heerenveen lead on every measure: goals (1.8 v 1.1), shots (16.3 v 8.8), on target (6.4 v 4.0).
OPEN GAME
Goals at both ends are likely: 57% both teams score, and 56% for three or more goals.
EARLY GOAL
Heerenveen are likelier to score first half: 51% to score before half-time, against 40% for Excelsior Maassluis. 71% that either side does.
03

First-half chances

How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time. A longer bar means more likely.

6+ shots
25%
68%
8+ shots
<10%
44%
2+ shots on target
50%
75%
4+ shots on target
13%
34%
1+ corners
76%
85%
3+ corners
26%
38%

Our numbers, most likely first

Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Heerenveen to score83%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Excelsior Maassluis to score68%
Under 3.5 goals67%

In plain English

Heerenveen should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Excelsior Maassluis. The model sees around three goals in it.

What would change the call

Heerenveen or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.

Excelsior Maassluis lead 1–0 at half-time76% → 42%
Heerenveen lead 1–0 at half-time76% → 95%
Goalless at half-time76% → 78%

Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.

First half — what we expect

Excelsior Maassluis
40%
to score before half-time
Heerenveen
51%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%

Excelsior MaassluisHeerenveen
4.01st-half shots7.3
1.81st-half shots on target2.9
1.71st-half corners2.3

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Excelsior Maassluis4.04.8
Shots · Heerenveen7.39.0
Shots on target · Excelsior Maassluis1.82.2
Shots on target · Heerenveen2.93.5
Corners · Excelsior Maassluis1.71.9
Corners · Heerenveen2.32.5
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Second half — who scores?

At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.

Model inputs

Excelsior Maassluis form (last 6)W W W W W W
Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 1Excelsior Maassluis 0 · Draws 0 · Heerenveen 1
Heerenveen in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Oct 2019Excelsior Maassluis 0–3 SC Heerenveen
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Common questions

Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?

Bawler's model rates this match: Heerenveen are favoured (52% win probability vs 24% for Excelsior Maassluis, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.

What is the predicted score for Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Excelsior Maassluis 1-1 Heerenveen (11.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.

How does Bawler predict Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?

Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Excelsior Maassluis 24%, the draw 25% and Heerenveen 52%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?

Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 57% chance. That is based on Excelsior Maassluis expecting 1.14 goals and Heerenveen 1.78.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Excelsior Maassluis vs Heerenveen?

Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
Excelsior Maassluis
All fixtures & results →Excelsior Maassluis form →Heerenveen form →