FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Genoa 1–1 FrosinoneMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Genoa at 45%, draw at 27%, Frosinone at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Genoa to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
45%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
Frosinone win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.13
Total 2.63
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 74%, backed by Genoa's 1.50 xG advantage and a combined expected output of 2.63 goals."