FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Fiorentina 1–3 ComoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Como or draw at 70%. Bawler had Fiorentina at 30%, the draw at 26% and Como at 44%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
30%
Draw
26%
Como win
44%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.