Frosinone vs Como prediction — Serie A · Sun 20 Sept · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept · 14:00 UK
Frosinone 21Draw 26Como 54
The call
79%
Como or draw
2.7
Goals expected
14d 04hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Como to score82%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Under 3.5 goals72%
Frosinone to score62%

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Como
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Nico Paz
MF · 3.7 shots expected
98%
74%
39%
Anastasios Douvikas
FW · 2.8 shots expected
94%
72%
36%
Álvaro Morata
FW · 2.5 shots expected
92%
63%
27%
Jesús Rodríguez
MF · 2.3 shots expected
90%
45%
12%
Martin Baturina
MF · 1.7 shots expected
81%
41%
10%
Lucas Da Cunha
MF · 1.4 shots expected
76%
41%
10%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5FRO 4 · D 0 · COM 1
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

Feb 2023Como 0–2 Frosinone
Sept 2022Frosinone 2–0 Como
Feb 2022Frosinone 1–2 Como
Sept 2021Como 0–2 Frosinone
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Common questions

Who will win Frosinone vs Como?

Bawler's model rates this match: Como are favoured (54% win probability vs 21% for Frosinone, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Frosinone vs Como?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Frosinone 1-1 Como (12.2% probability). Expected total goals: 2.66.

How does Bawler predict Frosinone vs Como?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Frosinone 21%, the draw 26% and Como 54%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Como?

BTTS: Yes (51% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 0.97 and away expected goals 1.69.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Frosinone vs Como?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.66. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Frosinone form →Como form →