FT · World: World Cup · Thursday, 09 July 2026

France 20 MoroccoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 09 July 2026

France
20
France win
Morocco
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had France at 55%, draw at 26%, Morocco at 19%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward France.

> Pre-match probability vs result
France win
55%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Morocco win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.661.22
Total 2.87
Actual
20
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"France's 55% win probability and 0.44 expected-goals edge makes 1X the banker play at 82%, with Mbappé's creative weight offsetting Morocco's counter threat."

> More from Bawler