What we expect
In plain English
Bayern Munich are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than FC Augsburg, and they have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Bayern Munich to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bayern Munich are favoured (70% win probability vs 14% for FC Augsburg, 17% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is FC Augsburg 1-2 Bayern Munich (8.6% probability). Expected total goals: 3.97.
How does Bawler predict FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives FC Augsburg 14%, the draw 17% and Bayern Munich 70%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.20 and away expected goals 2.77.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.97. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).