FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 18 September 2026
Bayern Munich 7–0 1. FC Union BerlinMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 18 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Bayern Munich at 80%, draw at 13%, 1. FC Union Berlin at 8%. The match ended 7-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Bayern Munich.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Munich win
80%
Actual ✓
Draw
13%
Berlin win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
3.12 – 0.93
Total 4.04
Actual
7 – 0
Total 7 (+3.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Bayern's dominance in expected chances—a 2.19 xG advantage—underpins the Home Win forecast at 80% probability."