FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Bayern Munich 6–1 RB LeipzigMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 70%. Bawler had Bayern Munich at 70%, the draw at 16% and RB Leipzig at 14%. The match finished 6–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bayern Munich win
70%
Result
Draw
16%
RB Leipzig win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.9 – 1.3
Total 4.1
Actual
6 – 1
Total 7 (+2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.8 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.