FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
FC Augsburg 1–1 1. FC Union BerlinMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Augsburg or draw at 72%. Bawler had FC Augsburg at 48%, the draw at 23% and 1. FC Union Berlin at 28%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Augsburg win
48%
Draw
23%
Result
1. FC Union Berlin win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
FC Augsburg or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Augsburg's 0.51 xG advantage and 49% win probability edge drives a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 85%, as the hosts' superior chance creation should unlock a multi-goal affair against Union's limited defensive setup."