FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Viking FK 3–3 Bayern MunichMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 63%. Bawler had Viking FK at 18%, the draw at 19% and Bayern Munich at 63%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Viking FK win
18%
Draw
19%
Result
Bayern Munich win
63%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.5
Total 3.8
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 63%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.