What we expect
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 72%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
In plain English
F.C. København are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
F.C. København or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win F.C. København vs Braga?
Bawler's model rates this match: F.C. København are favoured (45% win probability vs 28% for Braga, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for F.C. København vs Braga?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is F.C. København 1-1 Braga (12.6% probability). Expected total goals: 2.75.
How does Bawler predict F.C. København vs Braga?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives F.C. København 45%, the draw 27% and Braga 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in F.C. København vs Braga?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.56 and away expected goals 1.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in F.C. København vs Braga?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.75. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).