F.C. København go into this Conference League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 79% to win, against 6% for Inter D'Escaldes and 14% for a draw. Our predicted score is Inter D'Escaldes 0–2 F.C. København, at 13%. Our expected goals are 0.6 for Inter D'Escaldes and 2.6 for F.C. København, 3.2 in all. Both teams scoring is only 43% and three or more goals is 63%.
On form, Inter D'Escaldes have two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games, and F.C. København have four wins, two draws and no defeats.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
F.C. København to win is 79% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Bawler's model rates this match: F.C. København are favoured (79% win probability vs 6% for Inter D'Escaldes, 14% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
Bawler's predicted score is Inter D'Escaldes 0-2 F.C. København: the most likely score if F.C. København win, which is the likeliest result (79%). Our model puts that exact score at 13.3%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Inter D'Escaldes 6%, the draw 14% and F.C. København 79%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 43% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Inter D'Escaldes expecting 0.63 goals and F.C. København 2.60.
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.