FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Excelsior 1–5 FC GroningenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Excelsior or draw at 65%. Bawler had Excelsior at 40%, the draw at 25% and FC Groningen at 35%. The match finished 1–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
Excelsior win
40%
Draw
25%
FC Groningen win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 2.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.