FT · Netherlands: KNVB Beker · Thursday, 29 October 2026
FC Groningen 0–2 FC EmmenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 29 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Groningen to win at 65%. Bawler had FC Groningen at 65%, the draw at 19% and FC Emmen at 16%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Groningen win
65%
Draw
19%
FC Emmen win
16%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.1
Total 3.5
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Groningen to win
Pre-match: 65%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Groningen's home win prediction rests on a decisive 1.34 xG advantage and 67% win probability, reflecting their dominance in chance creation against a visiting side managing just 0.95 expected goals."