FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Fortuna Sittard 1–0 ExcelsiorMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 25 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Excelsior or draw at 64%. Bawler had Fortuna Sittard at 36%, the draw at 25% and Excelsior at 39%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fortuna Sittard win
36%
Result
Draw
25%
Excelsior win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82% because both sides generate near-identical attacking threat (1.54 vs 1.57 xG), creating a high-volume scoring environment despite evenly-matched win probabilities."