Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Thierno Barry and Bradley Barcola both getting shots away.
Everton v Liverpool prediction
Liverpool are favourites on our numbers: 42% to win, against 32% for Everton and 26% for a draw. Our predicted score is Everton 1–2 Liverpool, the likeliest Liverpool win score (9%). We expect 2.9 goals in total: 1.3 for Everton and 1.6 for Liverpool. Both teams scoring is 58% and three or more goals is 56%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Everton have won one, Liverpool three, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Everton 1–2 Liverpool, in Apr 2026. On shots, our forecast is 12.5 for Everton and 15.7 for Liverpool, with 4.4 and 4.9 on target, and corners at 4.3 to 5.5. So we expect Liverpool to do more of the shooting.
Of the players, Bradley Barcola of Liverpool tops our shots forecast at 2.5, if they start. Thierno Barry (Everton) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Joseph Gomez (Liverpool) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On form, Everton have three wins, one draw and two defeats from their last six games, and Liverpool have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Bawler's pick for this game is Both Teams to Score, Over 23.5 Total Shots, Thierno Barry 1+ Shot and Bradley Barcola 1+ Shot. Our model gives all four landing together a 44% chance, which makes the fair price 5/4 (2.27).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Everton · last 6
Liverpool · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Liverpool or draw is 68% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Everton vs Liverpool?
Bawler's model rates this match: Liverpool are favoured (42% win probability vs 32% for Everton, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Everton vs Liverpool?
Bawler's predicted score is Everton 1-2 Liverpool: the most likely score if Liverpool win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.8%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Everton vs Liverpool?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Everton 32%, the draw 26% and Liverpool 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Everton expecting 1.34 goals and Liverpool 1.56.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Everton vs Liverpool?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the Everton v Liverpool line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Everton v Liverpool?
Both Teams to Score (58%), Over 23.5 Total Shots (78%), Thierno Barry 1+ Shot (87%), Bradley Barcola 1+ Shot (88%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 44% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.27). 18+, please gamble responsibly.