Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelBrentford on top, and Igor Thiago getting plenty of shots away.
Brentford v Everton prediction
Brentford are favourites on our numbers: 48% to win, against 26% for Everton and 25% for a draw. Our predicted score is Brentford 2–1 Everton: the most likely score if Brentford win, at 9%. Our expected goals are 1.7 for Brentford and 1.2 for Everton, 2.9 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (58%) and three or more goals is 56%.
In their last six games Brentford have one win, two draws and three defeats, while Everton have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Brentford lost their most recent match and Everton won theirs. Of their last five meetings on our records, Brentford and Everton have one win each, with three draws. The last meeting ended Brentford 2–2 Everton, in Apr 2026.
We expect Brentford to have 15.5 shots (3.7 on target) and Everton 13.0 (3.8 on target), and corners at 5.2 to 4.4. Vitaly Janelt of Brentford is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick for this game is Brentford or Draw, Brentford Over 11.5 Shots and Igor Thiago 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 40% chance, which makes the fair price 6/4 (2.52).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Brentford · last 6
Everton · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Brentford or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Brentford vs Everton?
Bawler's model rates this match: Brentford are favoured (48% win probability vs 26% for Everton, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Everton?
Bawler's predicted score is Brentford 2-1 Everton: the most likely score if Brentford win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.4%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Brentford vs Everton?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Brentford 48%, the draw 25% and Everton 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Everton?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Brentford expecting 1.71 goals and Everton 1.21.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Brentford vs Everton?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the Brentford v Everton line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Brentford v Everton?
Brentford or Draw (74%), Brentford Over 11.5 Shots (78%), Igor Thiago 2+ Shots (63%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 40% chance, a fair price of 6/4 (2.52). 18+, please gamble responsibly.