How it finished
Estrela and FC Famalicao drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured FC Famalicao at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Estrela had 14 shots (4 on target) to FC Famalicao's 14 (4), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 64%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Estrela vs FC Famalicao?
Estrela and FC Famalicao drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured FC Famalicao at 45% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Estrela had 14 shots (4 on target) to FC Famalicao's 14 (4), with 41% of the ball against 59%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.8.
What was the final score in Estrela vs FC Famalicao?
Estrela 2–2 FC Famalicao, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Estrela 28%, the draw 27% and FC Famalicao 45%.
What were the stats in Estrela vs FC Famalicao?
Full-time: Possession 41%–59%, Expected goals (xG) 0.9–1.8, Shots 14–14, Shots on target 4–4, Shots inside box 10–6, Big chances 1–2, Corners 5–5, Saves 2–2, Fouls 11–9, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Estrela vs FC Famalicao?
Yes — both Estrela and FC Famalicao scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Estrela vs FC Famalicao right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Famalicao or draw 72%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed.