FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 30 August 2026
FC Famalicao 0–0 Gil VicenteMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Famalicao at 43%, draw at 29%, Gil Vicente at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was FC Famalicao to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Famalicao win
43%
Draw
29%
Actual ✓
Vicente win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.37 – 1.05
Total 2.42
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost