FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
C.D. Nacional 0–4 FC FamalicaoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 28%, draw at 28%, FC Famalicao at 44%. The match ended 0-4 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Famalicao.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Nacional win
28%
Draw
28%
Famalicao win
44%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.13 – 1.46
Total 2.59
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 73%, grounded in a combined 2.57 expected goals despite Nacional and Famalicão's narrow quality gap of 0.30 xG."