FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 12 October 2026
FC Famalicao 1–4 AlvercaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 12 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Famalicao or draw at 77%. Bawler had FC Famalicao at 50%, the draw at 27% and Alverca at 23%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Famalicao win
50%
Draw
27%
Alverca win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 2.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Famalicao or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.