> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Thursday 25 Jun, 20:00 UTC
Ecuador vs Germany
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because Germany's 1.68 xG and Ecuador's 1.31 xG combine for a 2.98 total that punishes under-betting in a fixture where the visitors' attacking depthβled by Wirtz at 22% of team creationβshould pierce a home defence yielding 0.37 xG more than they generate.
Win probability
26.8% home29.5% draw43.7% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
EcuadorstepGermany
1.28Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.68
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.68
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
9
7
4
2
1
1
7
11
9
5
2
1
2
4
7
6
3
1
3
2
3
3
1
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + X2 + Enner Valencia 2+ Shots + Over 8.5 Corners
Model 26.0% Β· @ 3.84x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Ecuador 2β1 Germany
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+