Ecuador vs Germany
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because Germany's 1.68 xG and Ecuador's 1.31 xG combine for a 2.98 total that punishes under-betting in a fixture where the visitors' attacking depth—led by Wirtz at 22% of team creation—should pierce a home defence yielding 0.37 xG more than they generate.
Ecuador average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Ecuador vs Germany — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ecuador and Germany — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Ecuador 27% · draw 29% · Germany 44%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.