Bawler / Ecuador vs Germany / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Thursday, 25 June 2026

Ecuador 2–1 GermanyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 25 June 2026

Ecuador
2–1
Ecuador win
Germany
> Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Ecuador at 27%, draw at 29%, Germany at 44%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-1. The model's headline call was Germany to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Ecuador win
27%
Actual ✓
Draw
29%
Germany win
44%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.68
Total 2.96
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Dark Horse
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
Bawl Out✗ Lost@ 3.84x
  • Over 2.5 Goals✓
  • X2✗
  • Enner Valencia 2+ Shots✓
  • Over 8.5 Corners✗
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals sits at 80% probability because Germany's 1.68 xG and Ecuador's 1.31 xG combine for a 2.98 total that punishes under-betting in a fixture where the visitors' attacking depth—led by Wirtz at 22% of team creation—should pierce a home defence yielding 0.37 xG more than they generate."

> More from Bawler