Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1. Derby County had 10 shots (4 on target) to Wrexham's 13 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.3.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1. Derby County had 10 shots (4 on target) to Wrexham's 13 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.3.
Derby County 1–1 Wrexham, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 42%, the draw 27% and Wrexham 31%.
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.3, Shots 10–13, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 4–10, Big chances 0–1, Corners 1–8, Saves 2–3, Fouls 10–6, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 3–2.
Yes — both Derby County and Wrexham scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.