What we expect
In plain English
Derby County are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost four of their last six. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Derby County or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Derby County vs Wrexham?
Bawler's model rates this match: Derby County are favoured (41% win probability vs 31% for Wrexham, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Derby County vs Wrexham?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Derby County 1-1 Wrexham (13.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.67.
How does Bawler predict Derby County vs Wrexham?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Derby County 41%, the draw 27% and Wrexham 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Derby County vs Wrexham?
BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.45 and away expected goals 1.23.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Derby County vs Wrexham?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.67. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).