Derby County vs Wrexham prediction — Championship · Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK

Championship · Sat 10 Oct · 15:00 UK
42Derby County win27Draw31Wrexham win
Full time
1–1

How it finished

Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1. Derby County had 10 shots (4 on target) to Wrexham's 13 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.3.

Derby CountyFull-time statsWrexham
45%Possession55%
0.5Expected goals (xG)1.3
10Shots13
4Shots on target3
4Shots inside box10
0Big chances1
1Corners8
2Saves3
10Fouls6
1Offsides3
3Yellow cards2
We predicted
1–0
Likeliest score if Derby County win (10%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)
Expected goals
1.5v1.2
2.7 in total
Both teams score
54%
Leans yes
3+ goals
50%
Coin flip

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Derby CountyDerby CountyWrexhamWrexham
1.5Goals1.2
13.6Shots14.4
3.7On target4.7
5.8Corners5.5
Derby CountyDerby CountyWrexhamWrexham
0.7Goals0.5
5.9Shots6.3
1.7On target1.9
2.7Corners2.6
Derby CountyDerby CountyWrexhamWrexham
0.8Goals0.7
7.7Shots8.1
2.0On target2.8
3.1Corners2.9

What we said the chances were

Derby County to score77%
2 or more goals75%
3 goals or fewer72%
Wrexham to score71%
Goal before half-time69%

First half — what we expected

Derby County
49%
to score before half-time
Wrexham
39%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Derby CountyDerby CountyWrexhamWrexham
64%5+ shots69%
38%7+ shots43%
76%1+ shots on target80%
24%3+ shots on target29%
70%2+ corners68%
30%4+ corners27%

League position

Wrexham in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Jan 2026Derby County 1–2 Wrexham
Sept 2025Wrexham 1–1 Derby County
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Championship table →
All fixtures & results →Derby County form →Wrexham form →

Common questions

Who won Derby County vs Wrexham?

Derby County and Wrexham drew 1–1. Derby County had 10 shots (4 on target) to Wrexham's 13 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.3.

What was the final score in Derby County vs Wrexham?

Derby County 1–1 Wrexham, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 42%, the draw 27% and Wrexham 31%.

What were the stats in Derby County vs Wrexham?

Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.3, Shots 10–13, Shots on target 4–3, Shots inside box 4–10, Big chances 0–1, Corners 1–8, Saves 2–3, Fouls 10–6, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 3–2.

Did both teams score in Derby County vs Wrexham?

Yes — both Derby County and Wrexham scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.