FT · England: Championship · Friday, 11 September 2026
West Ham United 6–0 WrexhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had West Ham United at 67%, draw at 20%, Wrexham at 13%. The match ended 6-0 — confirming the model's lean toward West Ham United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
67%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Wrexham win
13%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.17 – 0.86
Total 3.03
Actual
6 – 0
Total 6 (+3.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 67%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"West Ham's attacking firepower—led by Castellanos who accounts for over a quarter of their expected output—should overwhelm Wrexham's depleted offense in a home win, with the hosts generating 2.16 xG to 0.82."