FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Blackburn Rovers 2–0 WrexhamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Blackburn Rovers or draw at 66%. Bawler had Blackburn Rovers at 38%, the draw at 28% and Wrexham at 34%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Blackburn Rovers win
38%
Result
Draw
28%
Wrexham win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 73% because Blackburn's 1.35 xG and Wrexham's 1.25 xG combine for a 2.60 expected-goal total that naturally gravitates toward a two-goal minimum."