Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelCrystal Palace on top, and Yéremi Pino getting plenty of shots away.
Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad prediction
Our model gives Crystal Palace 56%, the draw 22% and Real Sociedad 22%, so Crystal Palace start as favourites. Our predicted score is Crystal Palace 2–1 Real Sociedad, the likeliest Crystal Palace win score (10%). Our expected goals are 2.1 for Crystal Palace and 1.3 for Real Sociedad, 3.4 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (63%) and three or more goals is 65%.
Crystal Palace come in with one win, two draws and three defeats in their last six. Real Sociedad have four wins, one draw and one defeat over the same run. Of the players, Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad) tops both our lists, with 2.6 shots and 1.3 on target expected if they start. Yangel Herrera of Real Sociedad is the most booked player in either squad, about once a game in 2026/27.
We expect Crystal Palace to have 17.7 shots (4.7 on target) and Real Sociedad 11.9 (4.2 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 4.5. That points to Crystal Palace doing more of the attacking. Bawler's pick combines Crystal Palace or Draw, Crystal Palace Over 13.5 Shots and Yéremi Pino 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 43%, a fair price of 11/8 (2.34).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Crystal Palace · last 6
Real Sociedad · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Crystal Palace or draw is 78% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's model rates this match: Crystal Palace are favoured (56% win probability vs 22% for Real Sociedad, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's predicted score is Crystal Palace 2-1 Real Sociedad: the most likely score if Crystal Palace win, which is the likeliest result (56%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Crystal Palace 56%, the draw 22% and Real Sociedad 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 63% chance. That is based on Crystal Palace expecting 2.09 goals and Real Sociedad 1.27.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad?
Crystal Palace or Draw (78%), Crystal Palace Over 13.5 Shots (78%), Yéremi Pino 2+ Shots (65%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 43% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.34). 18+, please gamble responsibly.