FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 08 November 2026
Real Sociedad 1–0 Rayo VallecanoMatch recap · Sunday, 08 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Real Sociedad or Draw✓
Real Sociedad Over 10.5 Shots✓
Orri Óskarsson 2+ Shots✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Real Sociedad win
49%
Result
Draw
24%
Rayo Vallecano win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.