Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelReal Sociedad on top, and Orri Óskarsson getting plenty of shots away.
Racing Santander v Real Sociedad prediction
Real Sociedad are favourites on our numbers: 48% to win, against 30% for Racing Santander and 22% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Racing Santander 1–2 Real Sociedad, the most likely Real Sociedad win (9%). Our expected goals are 1.6 for Racing Santander and 2.0 for Real Sociedad, 3.6 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (69%) and three or more goals is 70%.
Racing Santander come in with three wins, one draw and two defeats in their last six. Real Sociedad have three wins, two draws and one defeat over the same run. Yangel Herrera of Real Sociedad is the most booked player in either squad, about once a game in 2026/27.
We expect Racing Santander to have 16.9 shots (5.6 on target) and Real Sociedad 15.8 (5.1 on target), and corners at 4.6 to 6.3. Of their last five meetings on our records, Racing Santander have won one, Real Sociedad three, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Real Sociedad 1–1 Racing Santander, in Jul 2026. Bawler's pick for this game is Real Sociedad or Draw, Real Sociedad Over 11.5 Shots and Orri Óskarsson 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 48% chance, which makes the fair price 11/10 (2.09).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Racing Santander · last 6
Real Sociedad · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Real Sociedad or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
LaLiga table →Common questions
Who will win Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's model rates this match: Real Sociedad are favoured (48% win probability vs 30% for Racing Santander, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's predicted score is Racing Santander 1-2 Real Sociedad: the most likely score if Real Sociedad win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.7%. Expected total goals: 3.6.
How does Bawler predict Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Racing Santander 30%, the draw 22% and Real Sociedad 48%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 69% chance. That is based on Racing Santander expecting 1.59 goals and Real Sociedad 2.04.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Racing Santander vs Real Sociedad?
Bawler's model expects 3.6 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 70%.
When are the Racing Santander v Real Sociedad line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Racing Santander v Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad or Draw (70%), Real Sociedad Over 11.5 Shots (80%), Orri Óskarsson 2+ Shots (78%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.09). 18+, please gamble responsibly.