Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Brandon Thomas-Asante and Jean-Philippe Mateta both getting shots away.
Coventry City v Crystal Palace prediction
There is little between the sides in this Premier League game. Crystal Palace edge it at 40%, Coventry City are 34% and a draw is 26%. Our predicted score is Coventry City 1–2 Crystal Palace: the most likely score if Crystal Palace win, at 9%. We expect 2.9 goals in total: 1.4 for Coventry City and 1.5 for Crystal Palace. Both sides are more likely than not to score (59%) and three or more goals is 56%.
Coventry City come in with three wins, no draws and three defeats in their last six. Crystal Palace have one win, two draws and three defeats over the same run. We expect Coventry City to have 15.7 shots (5.0 on target) and Crystal Palace 11.4 (3.5 on target), and corners at 5.6 to 3.5. That points to Coventry City doing more of the attacking.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Coventry City and Crystal Palace have two wins each, with one draw. The last meeting ended Coventry City 1–1 Crystal Palace, in Mar 2012. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 22.5 Total Shots, Brandon Thomas-Asante 1+ Shot and Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 45%, a fair price of 5/4 (2.23).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Coventry City · last 6
Crystal Palace · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Crystal Palace or draw is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?
Bawler's model rates this match: Crystal Palace are favoured (40% win probability vs 34% for Coventry City, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?
Bawler's predicted score is Coventry City 1-2 Crystal Palace: the most likely score if Crystal Palace win, which is the likeliest result (40%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.6%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Coventry City 34%, the draw 26% and Crystal Palace 40%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Coventry City expecting 1.40 goals and Crystal Palace 1.53.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Coventry City vs Crystal Palace?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.
When are the Coventry City v Crystal Palace line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Coventry City v Crystal Palace?
Both Teams to Score (59%), Over 22.5 Total Shots (78%), Brandon Thomas-Asante 1+ Shot (90%), Jean-Philippe Mateta 1+ Shot (87%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 5/4 (2.23). 18+, please gamble responsibly.