Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1. Crystal Palace had 13 shots (7 on target) to Nottingham Forest's 24 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. On expected goals it was 2.4 to 3.0, so Nottingham Forest created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3–1. Crystal Palace had 13 shots (7 on target) to Nottingham Forest's 24 (6), with 43% of the ball against 57%. On expected goals it was 2.4 to 3.0, so Nottingham Forest created the better chances and still lost the game.
Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Crystal Palace 46%, the draw 26% and Nottingham Forest 28%.
Full-time: Possession 43%–57%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–3.0, Shots 13–24, Shots on target 7–6, Shots inside box 11–17, Big chances 4–8, Corners 5–8, Saves 4–4, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Yes — both Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.