FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Lyon 3–2 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Crystal Palace or draw at 65%. Bawler had Lyon at 35%, the draw at 26% and Crystal Palace at 39%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
35%
Result
Draw
26%
Crystal Palace win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Crystal Palace or draw
Pre-match: 65%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.