FT · England: Premier League · Friday, 23 October 2026
Ipswich Town 1–1 Nottingham ForestMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nottingham Forest or draw at 68%. Bawler had Ipswich Town at 32%, the draw at 26% and Nottingham Forest at 42%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ipswich Town win
32%
Draw
26%
Result
Nottingham Forest win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as both sides combine for 2.91 expected goals, with Nottingham Forest's 1.58 xG and Morgan Gibbs-White's attacking threat offsetting Ipswich's defensive setup."