FT · World: World Cup · Sunday, 28 June 2026

Congo DR 3–1 UzbekistanMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 28 June 2026

3–1

Congo DR win

> Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Congo DR at 27%, draw at 35%, Uzbekistan at 38%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-1. The model's headline call was Uzbekistan to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

DR win

27%

Actual ✓

Draw

35%

Uzbekistan win

38%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.00 – 1.24

Total 2.24

Actual

3 – 1

Total 4 (+1.8 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed

Banker

Pre-match: 76%

✗ Lost

Value

BTTS Yes

Pre-match: 51%

✓ Won

Dark Horse

Draw

Pre-match: 25%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"X2 lands at 76% because Uzbekistan's 1.24 xG edge is marginal and Congo DR's home platform keeps draw odds at 35%—a balanced midfield battle where the away side's slight attack (led by Shomurodov's 22% xG share) won't break through decisively."

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