> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทSaturday 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC
Congo DR vs Uzbekistan
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
X2 lands at 76% because Uzbekistan's 1.24 xG edge is marginal and Congo DR's home platform keeps draw odds at 35%โa balanced midfield battle where the away side's slight attack (led by Shomurodov's 22% xG share) won't break through decisively.
Win probability
26.6% home35.1% draw38.3% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
Congo DRstepUzbekistan
1.00Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.24
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.00Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses1.24
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
13
8
3
1
1
11
13
8
3
1
2
5
7
4
2
1
3
2
2
1
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
1 pickAnytime ScorerPro
Eldor Shomurodov
Uzbekistan ยท Istanbul Baลakลehir
40%@ 2.50x fair
Bet on Oddschecker โProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Congo DR 3โ1 Uzbekistan
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+