How it finished
Chelsea beat Leeds United 6–3. Bawler's model had Chelsea in front at 48% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 9. Chelsea had 16 shots (8 on target) to Leeds United's 18 (6), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 2.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 80%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Chelsea beat Leeds United 6–3. Bawler's model had Chelsea in front at 48% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 9. Chelsea had 16 shots (8 on target) to Leeds United's 18 (6), with 49% of the ball against 51%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 2.4.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Chelsea 6–3 Leeds United, played on 09 Sept 2026 in the England: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with Chelsea 48%, the draw 25% and Leeds United 27%.
What were the stats in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Full-time: Possession 49%–51%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–2.4, Shots 16–18, Shots on target 8–6, Shots inside box 9–14, Big chances 5–4, Corners 3–5, Saves 3–2, Fouls 6–10, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Yes — both Chelsea and Leeds United scored, finishing 6–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Chelsea vs Leeds United right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Chelsea or draw 73%, it finished Chelsea won (48% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 9; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.