FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 5–1 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 71%, draw at 19%, Charlton Athletic at 10%. The match ended 5-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Tottenham Hotspur.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Hotspur win
71%
Actual ✓
Draw
19%
Athletic win
10%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.18 – 0.69
Total 2.87
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 55%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 32%
✓ Won