FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Tottenham Hotspur 5–1 Charlton AthleticMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Tottenham Hotspur to win at 71%. Bawler had Tottenham Hotspur at 71%, the draw at 19% and Charlton Athletic at 10%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Tottenham Hotspur win
71%
Result
Draw
19%
Charlton Athletic win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.7
Total 2.9
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Tottenham Hotspur to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.