Charlton Athletic 1–0 Preston North EndMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026

1–0

Charlton Athletic win

Preston North End

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 41%, draw at 28%, Preston North End at 31%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Charlton Athletic.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Athletic win

41%

Actual ✓

Draw

28%

End win

31%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.43 – 1.22

Total 2.65

Actual

1 – 0

Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 74%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 51%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 28%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Charlton's fight to escape the relegation zone clashes with Preston's nothing-to-play-for approach, creating the asymmetry that drives the model's high-confidence call for Over 1.5 Goals at 75%, despite a tight 1.48–1.22 xG gap."

> More from Bawler